Productivity growth has remained volatile
U.S. labor productivity has not followed a steady path in recent years. The chart tracks quarterly percent changes in nonfarm business labor productivity from 2023 to 2025.
The overall pattern shows repeated swings between strong growth and sharp slowdowns. Rather than moving consistently upward or downward, productivity growth has fluctuated significantly from quarter to quarter.
The strongest and weakest quarters
The highest productivity growth occurred in 2023 Q3 at 4.1%, marking the strongest quarter in the dataset. This followed a lower reading of 2.6% in 2023 Q2, showing how quickly productivity momentum accelerated.
On the opposite end, 2024 Q1 recorded just 0.5%, the weakest quarter in the chart. The drop from 1.9% in 2023 Q4 to 0.5% in early 2024 highlights how rapidly growth conditions changed.
Another strong rebound appeared in 2024 Q3 at 3.0%, before slowing again to 2.1% in the following quarter.
Most quarters stayed in the middle range
Outside the extremes, most quarters clustered between 1.5% and 3.0% growth. For example, productivity reached 2.3% in 2024 Q2 and 2.8% in 2025 Q2 before easing again later in the year.
By 2025 Q4, productivity growth slowed to 1.7%, lower than earlier quarters but still above the weakest periods seen in 2024.
The repeated rises and declines suggest that productivity growth has remained unstable rather than settling into a predictable trend.
Why productivity growth fluctuates
Productivity growth is heavily influenced by changes in output, labor hours, business investment, and broader economic conditions. When businesses produce more output without a proportional increase in labor hours, productivity rises.
Quarterly volatility can also reflect shifts in consumer demand, hiring patterns, automation investment, and changes in economic activity across industries.
Because productivity is measured over short periods, temporary slowdowns or rebounds can create noticeable swings in the data.
What this means for workers and the economy
Productivity growth matters because it is closely tied to long-term wage growth and economic expansion. Higher productivity allows businesses to produce more value per worker, which can support higher incomes over time.
However, the chart suggests that recent productivity gains have been inconsistent. For workers and employers, this creates uncertainty around future economic momentum and labor market conditions.
The broader takeaway is clear. U.S. productivity growth has remained positive overall, but the path has been uneven and highly sensitive to changing economic conditions.
Dataset
Data Sources
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. (2025). Labor Productivity and Costs. Nonfarm Business Sector Labor Productivity Quarterly Percent Change. https://www.bls.gov/productivity/
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. (2025). Productivity and Costs News Release. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/prod2.nr0.htm
