1/ Today we received another update on U.S. labor market activity, and the data shows a year of steady but moderating momentum. Job openings, hires, and quits all moved within a relatively stable range throughout 2024.
2/ Job openings, which reflect employer demand for workers, began the year above 8 million and gradually declined into midyear before stabilizing. While openings remain elevated compared to pre pandemic norms, they are clearly lower than the historic peaks seen during the labor shortages of 2021 and 2022. This suggests that labor demand is cooling but not collapsing. There is no sudden spike downward that would indicate widespread retrenchment.
3/ Hires followed a similar pattern, fluctuating between roughly 5 million and 5.6 million per month. The relative stability of hiring indicates that firms are still adding workers at a steady pace. Quits, often interpreted as a proxy for worker confidence, also remained consistent. Employees continue to voluntarily leave jobs, though at lower levels than during the peak of the so called Great Resignation.
4/ Remote work continues to play an indirect role in these trends. The normalization of flexible work arrangements may be reducing friction in job matching. When workers can consider remote opportunities, geographic constraints weaken, potentially supporting steady hiring even as openings moderate.
5/ There are alternative interpretations. Lower openings could reflect tighter financial conditions or slower economic growth. At the same time, stable quit rates suggest workers still feel confident enough to change jobs. We should watch whether hiring slows further in upcoming reports before drawing stronger conclusions.
Dataset
Data Sources
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), 2024.
https://www.bls.gov/jlt/